Space Stocks Weekly #2
Space stocks performance starts diverging, Redwire selected by ESA to design Mars spacecraft, IM-2 mission ends early, space companies reports earnings, and more!
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The format
Here’s how Space Stocks Weekly works: I start by sharing the latest news on publicly traded space companies, followed by updates on the broader space industry, including private companies.
This way, you get the full picture of what’s happening in the space industry.
This week is packed with updates, since I spent my last weekend writing my article on Rocket Lab's Q4 earnings. So, let's dive in!
Space Stocks Performance Starts Diverging
In 2024, space stocks had strong upward momentum, each company driven by their own different catalysts. However, since February 1st, their performance has started to diverge. ASTS 0.00%↑ has had the best performance, recording the highest returns in recent weeks, while LUNR 0.00%↑ has seen a sharp decline.
ASTS 0.00%↑ surged 15% the day following their Q4 earnings report on March 3, after market close. As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling $567.5M. Following a recent offering of convertible notes, the company mentioned to have now nearly $1.0 billion in cash. The company is also accelerating its satellite manufacturing, with plans and production underway for 40 Block 2 BlueBird satellites at its Texas facilities. Additionally, AST SpaceMobile also achieved full operational status for the first five BlueBird commercial satellites and successfully conducted capability demonstrations, including two-way video call transmissions with AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone.
$MDA.TO surged 17% this Friday following their Q4 earnings, showing strong growth overall in the business. For Q4, the company reported a 69% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $347 million, and a 68% increase in adj. EBITDA, totaling $71 million. Full-year 2024 results also exceeded expectations, with revenues of $1.08 billion, up 34% from the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA of $217 million, a 25% increase. The company also reported free cash flow of $615 million. For 2025, the company estimates revenues between $1.50 billion and $1.65 billion. The $1.1 billion agreement with Globalstar for their new satellite constellation contributed to the positive outlook.
RKLB 0.00%↑ is down 34% since February 1st. The company reported its Q4 earnings on February 27th and introduced two projects in progress, including Return On Investment, a barge designed to support the first-stage landing of their Neutron rocket, and Flatellite, a new satellite tailored for large constellations. Total revenue increased by 26.3% from the previous quarter, reaching $132.4 million, beating the $130.6 million estimate. The increase in launch cadence also contributed to a year-over-year boost in launch services revenue, which saw a 121% increase. However, the guidance for Q1 is much lower than estimated…
If you're interested, here’s my deep dive into Rocket Lab’s latest earnings report!
LUNR 0.00%↑ stock fell 35% between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, following the landing of their Nova-C lunar lander, Athena. Roughly 30 minutes after landing, the livestream ended abruptly, leaving investors with no updates for hours on Athena’s status. Later, at 4:00 PM EST, during the scheduled news conference, Intuitive Machines’ CEO, Steve Altemus, and NASA revealed that the lander had landed off nominally. On Friday morning, the company confirmed that the lander had tipped over and that its batteries were depleted, ending the mission. Despite this, Athena was still able to collect 250 MB of data.
BKSY 0.00%↑ dropped over 20% Thursday morning after their Q4 earnings report due to mixed results. The company’s backlog grew 49% quarter-over-quarter to $390 million, and adj. EBITDA was positive at $11.6 million. For 2025, BlackSky expects revenue between $125 million and $142 million, a 30% increase year-over-year. However, Q4 revenue came in at $30.4 million, down $5.1 million (or 14%) from Q4 2023, which had a one-time $7 million boost from the company’s Indonesian contract. BlackSky successfully launched its first Gen-3 satellite, which began delivering high-resolution imagery within five days of launch, exceeding customer expectations. Throughout 2024, BlackSky secured several contracts, including a $100 million seven-year subscription contract with an international customer and a multi-year contract valued up to $200 million with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
SPCE 0.00%↑ plunged to new lows following their Q4 earnings report on February 26, 2025. As of December 31, 2024, the company held $657 million in cash and equivalents, boosted by a recent $29 million offering. Virgin Galactic is making progress towards its 2026 commercial spaceflight target, with the first Delta Class SpaceShip set to begin production in March 2025. Q4 revenue fell to $0.4 million due to a pause in flights, but the company reduced expenses by 30%, limiting its net loss to $76 million. For Q1 2025, the company expects a free cash flow of $(115) million to $(125) million.
GSAT 0.00%↑ has been the least volatile space stock since February 1st, outperforming the S&P 500 by 5%. On February 27, Globalstar reported Q4 2024 revenue of $61.2 million (+17% YoY), including $57.7 million from services and $3.5 million from equipment sales. Full-year revenue hit a record $250.3 million, exceeding guidance, with 16% growth in service revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $135.3 million, but the company posted a net loss of $63.2 million due to debt-related costs and currency fluctuations. For 2025, revenue guidance is $260 million-$285 million, with an expected EBITDA margin of ~50%. Last month, GSAT 0.00%↑ uplisted to Nasdaq’s Global Select Market.
Space Stocks Updated Earnings Calendar
Here is the updated calendar with the official Q4 earnings report dates:
RDW 0.00%↑ Mar 10 (After Market Close)
Astroscale (TYO: 186A) Mar 14 (After Market Close)
PL 0.00%↑ Mar 20 (After Market Close)
Rocket Lab Prepares for First of Multiple Launches for iQPS
RKLB 0.00%↑ 61st mission (“The Lightning God Reigns”) will launch a single synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging satellite to low-Earth orbit for the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, Inc. (TYO: 5595). The satellite will deliver high-resolution monitoring from specific locations every 10 minutes.
The Lightning God Reigns is the first of eight upcoming launches for iQPS across 2025 and 2026.
The mission is scheduled to launch for no earlier than March 10th, 2025, at 8:00 PM EDT.
Redwire Selected by ESA to Design Revolutionary Mars Spacecraft Concept
Redwire Corporation has been awarded a study contract by the European Space Agency (ESA) to design a spacecraft concept for their LightShip initiative.
The LightShip initiative by the European Space Agency (ESA) aims to provide low-cost access to Mars by developing a propulsive tug system that can transport small spacecraft. As part of the initiative, ESA is funding independent studies by four consortia to explore smallsat platform solutions that can be carried by LightShip. Similar to NASA's CLPS initiative, ESA's LightShip program aims to reduce the typical costs of such missions by partnering with private companies rather than agencies.
Redwire's Belgian subsidiary, Redwire Space NV, is part of a consortium selected to explore smallsat platform solutions for Mars missions. Redwire has already worked with ESA in the past, including past successful missions like Hera and PROBA.
IM-2 Rideshare Payloads Experiencing Issues
On February 26, SpaceX successfully launched Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C Athena aboard their Falcon 9 rocket. Also on board this mission was NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer, Astroforge’s Odin, and Epic Aerospace’s CHIMERA GEO 1 spacecraft.
Unfortunately, both Lunar Trailblazer and Odin experienced issues after they were deployed from the Falcon 9 upper stage.
NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer, a small spacecraft designed to map water on the moon, lost communication shortly after launch, and the engineering team received data showing intermittent power system issues. As of March 4th, efforts were still underway to re-establish communication with the satellite and they are now working on backup plans to adjust the spacecraft’s trajectory once contact is reestablished to place the spacecraft into lunar orbit. At least, this would allow Lunar Trailblazer to achieve some of its mission objectives.
“NASA sends up high-risk, high-reward missions like Lunar Trailblazer to do incredible science at a lower cost, and the team truly encapsulates the NASA innovative spirit — if anyone can bring Lunar Trailblazer back, it is them”
— Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA
AstroForge's Odin spacecraft, built in just ten months for $3.5 million—only 7% of the cost of similar NASA missions like Lunar Trailblazer—has run into communication issues shortly after deployment. Odin separated from the Falcon 9 rocket successfully and entered its deep-space trajectory as planned. However, after some problems with the ground station in Australia, the team lost communication with Odin for a few hours. They later reestablished contact after an amateur radio operator picked up a faint signal. Still, full telemetry data is missing, making it hard to fully assess the spacecraft's condition. Unfortunately, AstroForge indicates chances of regaining stable communication are low, as its exact position is becoming harder to pinpoint.
The company says in their latest update that the most likely explanation is an issue with Odin's solar panel deployment. The spacecraft entered Sun Safe Mode to conserve power while trying to reorient toward the sun. If the panels didn't fully deploy, Odin would have limited power, focusing only on essential systems and sacrificing communication.
Another possibility AstroForge is considering is that Odin might be tumbling. If this is the case, there could be brief communication windows when the antenna aligns with Earth.
“In many ways, Odin has become both a pioneer and a teacher—continuing its mission by informing our future endeavors, even in silence.”
— AstroForge
AstroForge thorough updates on the mission can be found here.
Intuitive Machine’s Lander Tipped Over… Again.
Intuitive Machines' IM-2 is the company’s second of four planned lunar missions as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative.
As part of the mission, the lander was set to deliver NASA’s PRIME-1 suite, which includes a drill and a spectrometer for analyzing lunar soil. The lander was also set to deliver the company’s Micro Nova hopper and a small rover from Lunar Outpost to map water ice on the lunar surface. Additionally, Nokia’s technologies were onboard to demonstrate 4G/LTE capabilities.
After lifting off aboard Falcon 9, Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C lander, Athena, was successfully placed into a trans-lunar injection trajectory. The journey to the Moon has been smoother compared to the IM-1 mission, launched around the same time last year. Throughout her journey, Athena maintained a stable attitude, solar charging, and continuous radio communication.
Athena completed her scheduled 492-second main engine Lunar Orbit Insertion (LOI) burn at 7:27 a.m. EST on March 3, followed by her Descent Orbit Insertion at 5:33 a.m. EST, ahead of the planned landing on March 6.
On March 6, at around 12:30 PM EST, Athena successfully touched down in the Mons Mouton region of the lunar south pole, landing just 250 meters from its intended site. Shortly after touchdown, teams at Intuitive Machines began working to determine the lander’s orientation due to conflicting data. However, the livestream ended abruptly a few minutes later.
Within 30 minutes, LUNR 0.00%↑ dropped by 20% due to uncertainties about Athena’s condition.
During the scheduled news conference at 4:00 PM EST, CEO Steve Altemus confirmed that the lander had likely landed off nominally.
Following this announcement, the company’s stock dropped another 30%.
The following day, before the market opens, images revealed by Intuitive Machines showed that Athena had indeed landed on her side, similar to Odysseus a year ago.
Given the direction of the sun, the positioning of the solar panels, and the extreme cold temperatures in the shadowed crater, Intuitive Machines does not expect the lander to recharge its batteries. As a result, the mission was concluded early, though teams are continuing to assess the data collected throughout the mission.
NASA reported that the lander successfully gathered 250 MB of valuable data.
“While we’re disappointed in the outcome of the IM-2 mission, we remain committed to supporting our commercial vendors as they navigate the very difficult task of landing and operating on the Moon.”
— NASA
Intuitive Machines is one of 13 American companies eligible to bid on contracts under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative, which aims to deliver valuable science instruments and technology demonstrations to the Moon. Since the initiative began in 2018, Intuitive Machines has secured four tasks, and will be responsible for delivering over 20 NASA payloads to the Moon in the coming years.
Through the CLPS initiative, NASA partners with private companies to deliver payloads to the lunar surface using landers and rovers. These missions are considered high-risk, high-reward by NASA, as they aim to deliver as many scientific experiments and technology demonstrations to the Moon as possible, all while keeping costs low.
To learn more, here’s my deep dive into this year’s lunar missions:
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SpaceX Starship Flight 8 Recap
The 8th integrated flight test of SpaceX’s Starship took place on March 6, 2025, from Starbase, Texas. This 8th flight aimed to deploy four prototype of Starlink satellites before performing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
The Super Heavy booster (B15) was successfully caught by the launch tower’s chopsticks. This was the third attempt to catch a booster mid-air—all successful so far!
However, around nine minutes into flight, the Starship upper stage (Ship 34) failed when four of its six engines shut down prematurely, causing it to tumble. This is the second flight in a row a second-generation Starship experiences an anomaly. The vehicle ultimately broke apart over the Bahamas, Florida, Jamaica, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
The replay of the launch is available here.
Firefly’s Blue Ghost Lands And Operates On The Moon
Firefly also has their lander on the lunar surface. On March 2, Blue Ghost successfully touched down on the lunar surface and began operations, delivering payloads as part of NASA’s CLPS initiative.
The Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume-Surface Studies (SCALPSS) captured images during the spacecraft’s descent and touchdown. SCALPSS are an engineering experiment to study the effects of the lander’s plume on the lunar surface. Using four cameras, SCALPSS captures images from different angles during descent and engine shut-off, enabling the creation of 3D models of the landing site before and after touchdown.
In a blog post on Tuesday, NASA reported that all 10 of the agency’s science instruments and tech demonstrations aboard Blue Ghost remain in good condition. Several instruments have already begun collecting data, including the Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS), which uses electrical currents to sweep moon dust off the spacecraft’s surface. Moon dust, known for damaging equipment during NASA’s Apollo missions, is being managed by the EDS, which NASA suggests could be a promising solution for future lunar operations. Another significant milestone was achieved by the Lunar Global Navigation Satellite System Receiver Experiment (LuGRE), which, for the first time, acquired a GPS signal from the lunar surface, roughly 225,000 miles from Earth.
Additionally, Blue Ghost’s Surface Access Arm deployed the Lunar PlanetVac (LPV), an instrument designed to collect and transfer lunar soil to other instruments or sample containers without relying on gravity.
Live updates on Firefly’s Blue Ghost 1 mission can be found here.